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TESLA Wins “GREEN” Megatrend Prediction



Exactly 10 years ago - I predicted the emergence of “GREEN” behemoths similar to the rise of “TECH” segment titans like Apple, Google, and Microsoft.


Electric Vehicles (EVs) are the first environmentally friendly "GreenTech" (technology based on production processes/supply chains/carbon emissions) “GREEN” segment reaching towering market value heights:


This week TESLA (NASDAQ: TSLA) reached a $400+ Billion market value,together with other EV stocks that are soaring


Although it is likely to be vastly overvalued, keep in mind TESLA has positioned itself to be more than just a mere EV pioneer. TESLA’s energy products like the Powerpack and Powerwall made at their Gigafactories are being powered by renewables to preserve TESLA as an environmental and sustainability leader. Plus, CEO Elon Musk (@elonmusk) said that TESLA would not pursue lawsuits against anyone who wants to use their technology to improve sustainable transport, which is accelerating EV applications and uptake worldwide.


TESLA’s next big announcement - “Battery Day” will be live-streamed September 22. If in fact TESLA has produced a 50% boost in energy density and can deliver a million-mile battery lifetime, that will drive down the cost of EVs to reach parity with gasoline-vehicle costs and will be a game-changer that pushes EVs adoption even more rapidly into the mainstream. 



2020-2030 "BLUE/GREEN" Megatrend Prediction


My subsequent prediction for this decade is that sustainability “BLUE” / eco “GREEN” will go mainstream and we will see several more “GREEN” giants emerge.


As far as timing, in my mind, it's bifurcated by the upcoming presidential election. I believe under a Trump & Pence administration we will not see many new “GREEN” behemoths emerge until the second half of the decade (2026 -2030) vs. under a Biden & Harris administration who will likely end subsidies for fossil fuels along with having the federal government incentivize “GREEN” as part of their agenda – this potentially would accelerate the megatrend upswing, skewing influx toward the first half of the decade (2021-2025). 


Additionally, I believe 5G technology will play a role in supporting sustainability “BLUE” / eco “GREEN” acceleration and smart communities/cities ascension in unanticipated ways by means of remote monitoring, command & control, internet of things (IoT), robotics & automation, alongside unforeseen convergence in communication and transportation infrastructure and mobility.  In fact, I am working on it.

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Below is the original article I wrote in 2010 anticipating the mainstream “megatrend” I foretold:


SUSTAINABLE BRANDS 2010, Monterey, CA

Posted September 9, 2010


Post-meeting with leading sustainability, brand strategy, product design, and communications executives from top GLOBAL BRANDS as well as NGOs, stimulating start-ups, and leading solutions providers at SB’10, I am fervent about making a “green” impact globally. I discovered my passion and providence, and plan to leave a legacy.


“Green” movements have waxed & waned in the 1960’s, 70’s, 80’s and 90’s. Mostly due to changing regulations, incentives, buying behavior and consumer psyche (Gasoline below $2.50/gallon, a HUMMER appears like an entertaining “big toy”, but at $4.00+/gallon a PRIUS looks like a better idea). Protecting “American interests” the past decade has further awakened the general public to the notion that the “total cost” to maintain 25% plus consumption of the world’s oil simply is “unsustainable”.


With that said, I believe the new millennium marked a transformation. The “sustainability” momentum is accelerating. Consequently, a tangible shift in WORLDVIEWS is materializing.

It’s chasm crossing time. When early adopters (“Prius effect”), governments (Federal/State), financial markets (Wallstreet/Banks/VC’s) and corporate America (Best Buy, Ford, GE, HP, Wal-Mart, etc.) concurrently spend, craft incentives, legislate % renewable energy by 2015/2020 deadlines, invest, set goals and use environmental strategy to innovate, create value, and build competitive advantage… sustainability “blue” and eco “green” goes mainstream.


Hence majority “macro shift” buying behavior through an environmental lens establishes a “megatrend” which no organization, politician or business can afford to ignore.

Will there be a “Green” bubble-like the “Tech” bubble or “Real Estate” bubble? Yes, I believe so.


I believe it will be similar to every “gold rush” where many dollars/resources/people chase dreams, mergers and acquisitions, consolidation and some bankruptcy will ensue… nevertheless the next Microsoft, Apple, Google-type winners in the “Green” space vs. “Tech” space will emerge by the end of the decade.


It’s going to be an exciting ride, but with a better ending!

AUTHOR:

Bob Newkirk

smartgrowth@rampwise.com

@bobnewkirk

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